Most investors remember the first Fed hike arriving in March 2022. But if you pull up a chart of the Nasdaq and the highest‑beta names, the real break started months earlier, in 2021. The key shift wasn’t the policy move itself; it was the rate narrative turning decisively away from “lower for longer.” Through early 2021, tech…
The US federal debt story is no longer about a distant 2030 problem; it is already reshaping policy today. By late 2025, total federal debt stood around 38–38.5 trillion, roughly 125% of GDP. With nominal GDP near 29–30 trillion, debt now exceeds output by a wide margin. That ratio is projected to keep grinding higher…
Donald Trump’s push for Fed funds to drop toward 1% sounds completely at odds with nominating Kevin Warsh, a figure widely viewed as more hawkish on monetary policy. The tension is real, but it becomes less puzzling once you separate Trump’s short‑term rate preferences from the long‑run regime he wants the Fed to embody. Trump’s 1% rhetoric is about…
Kevin Warsh’s previous writing offers a clear window into a macro philosophy that is more rules‑based, inflation‑averse, and skeptical of oversized central banks than the post‑2008 norm. Across speeches, op‑eds, and interviews, several consistent themes emerge. Warsh has argued that “inflation is a choice,” not an accident, and that the Fed in recent years has…